From Stock-to-Flow and Power Law to NVT ratios and machine learning, the most common crypto prediction models each carry ...

What makes people change their minds or their behavior? Social scientists spend a lot of time thinking about this question, ...

Looped language model training cannot control hidden-state norm growth because RMSNorm normalizes scale away before the loss ...

Prediction-market platform Kalshi recently unveiled a swath of “market integrity” updates that all relate to one thing: stopping illegal trading by insiders. The updates include things like risk ...

The Trump administration on Wednesday proposed a set of new federal regulations for prediction markets that appear to largely leave the booming industry intact. Importantly, the new rules would ...

Earlier this year, Thomas Christian Owens decided to try his hand at prediction market trading for the first time. He created a Kalshi account in January. Three months and a $500 deposit later, he ...

Prediction markets allow people to trade on the outcome of real-world events, from basketball games to elections. And trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket – the two leading prediction markets – has ...

The Oklahoma City Thunder evened their 2026 NBA playoff series with the San Antonio Spurs with a Game 2 victory at home. Now Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs return to the Lone Star State with the ...

Pair of red dice with white dots. Photo by Jonathan Petersson on Unsplash. The growth of prediction markets begs the question, is it wrong to benefit from someone else’s misfortune? Ethics Center ...

The prediction markets seem to have a strong opinion about who — or at least which party — will win the 2028 presidential election. As of this week, prediction market Kalshi gives the Democratic party ...

Max Meizlish and I argued in these pages in February that prediction markets had become an intelligence asset, vulnerable to insider trading by those with classified knowledge of future events. Two ...

Though Bitcoin might currently be trading 40% lower than its record high price, the asset manager is still bullish on the leading cryptocurrency. Christopher Jensen, the director of digital asset ...